OT: Some Logic Help

[red5angel]

Ok, I have this freind who is a genius, his IQ is probably off the chats. He soaks up information like a sponge, a photographic memory. Anyway, his geniusosity (yes I made that up) is extremely evident, however when he discusses his discussion sor arguments rely almost purely on logic. This is flawed in many ways but he has a hard time understanding this apparently so I am trying to figure out a way to explain it to him.

Let me give you an example: He walks up to me one day and announces he is going to be starting his own business, with my rommmater, selling coffee beans. He explains he has done the research and has discovered selling coffee beans is one of the highest netting business to own. Logically he is making sense, then I point out that he doesn't like coffee, as a matter of fact he can't stand it. My roommate, drinks it but knows squat about it except that he likes cream and sugar and sometimes enjoys some suburban frufru drinks. I explain to him that coffee is a thing people LIKE and that they base their purchasing on this LIKE. Well he has done the research and it only makes sense, he can learn all he needs about coffee by reading and doing research. Then I point out his last two failed self owned business started out like this.
Anyway he goes on to start the business and watch it die a slow lingering death.

So, with that in mind, anyone here studied logic enough to help me get the idea across to this guy that Logic can and does fail?!

[norther practitioner]

Ask him how close the market is to being saturated, what his gimmick would be,etc. There are a lot of been traders out there, how come he would do well with it. Give it to him from a statistical standpoint....you are now batting .000 with your businesses, etc.

[Radhnoti]

His idea is only logical if he's willing to put as much time into it as someone who actually enjoys it. And if he does that, hating it the whole time, he won't have time to spend all the money he expects to make. His logic is flawed, I think. He can make the money (which is his goal) but never spend it or enjoy his life.
Logic doesn't fail, we just fail to take every aspect of a situation into account (often we don't have all the information needed). For someone who enjoys coffee and the business of coffee, it's not like working...and so they'll HAPPILY spend all their waking hours doing the same thing he's doing UNHAPPILY.
Both parties may end up rich with no time for anything else, but his happy competitor won't care. He's living the dream.

[fa_jing]

He has made a fundamental mistake regarding the supremacy of knowledge. Knowledge is contingent - in other words a logical argument can be self-consistent, yet utter bullocks - because it is resting on unknowable premises.

OK, that was just a bunch of technospeak. Basically he can't consider all of the parameters involved because he only has a finite mind like the rest of us mortals. He appears to be lacking in common sense too.

[red5angel]

He does lack some in common sense, but not I would say because he couldn't have it, but because he relies too much on his intellect. He is the kind of person who belives he can think his way out of or through anything. Like man who stares at a nail too long trying to figure out the best way to pound it into the board. If he would have just pounded it right away it would be in by now.....

[Cody]

In my experience, a person who logics their way thru just about everything might be unaware in more than one category.
The fact that he doesn't always meet with success would call for re-examination. Obviously, if the same mistakes are being repeated, his logic is failing. Why? Why no change? Also, logic might be used as a substitute for living.

The person might have fallen into one or several thinking loops which prevent creative thinking because he can't get out of the box.

Why does the person stay in the box? He hasn't figured out how to get out. That doesn't mean stupidity; it's a matter of perception, sometimes learned perception of possibilities. Open the mind, or find another box. options.

Another idea is that the box is safe. It's a known quantity. If any success has resulted from staying in it, that reinforces the effort to make it work. He will make it work. pride.

To go on. re the substitute for living. Some people are afraid of their feelings, some of which they are not aware of on a conscious level. They compensate by "figuring out" Everything according to logical formulas or recipes. One can find a formula for anything. The self-empowerment market is based on this and other things.
The fact that a method was effective on paper or in a past project, but that other circumstances need to be taken into consideration Now, becomes of no consequence. Because the recipe Speaks and it will work because he will make it work. He has Control over this, and he has Control over his feelings, which he might not acknowledge to begin with, not deeply enough to feel the pain, or real joy. If this is so, trying to get him to change business perspective could open up an unexpected can of worms. Maybe it's time to get the can opener while he's still young enough to make his fortune and enjoy it, enjoy making it too.

guessing,

Cody

[red5angel]

Cody, I think what you say is heading in the right direction. Part of the issue in discussing with this guy is that he has had some pretty good success in other aspects of his life. Without a colege degree, or any college at all, hemanaged to get a 65K a year job at the age of 19. Now he makes about 80$ an hour contracting. The problem with that is that it's the computer industry, and anyone in the computer indsutry knows its a logical world....
So in a way he could "logically" argue that logic works for him, but he can't see the weakness in his argument because he leans more on the successes then the failurse. It's a positive way to look at things I guess but it makes it a pain in the arse to discuss anything with this guy.

[eulerfan]

Logic fails when it tries to predict human behavior. Humans do not behave according to pure logic. Businesses rely on a fair ability to predict the market which is controlled by human behavior which is not, in turn, controlled by logic. Your friend seems like a savant to me. He should go into something that needs pure mathematical reasoning and sales is not on that list.

[Cody]

I'd be curious to see how your friend would fare if his business buddy was adept in the human behavior end -- how to determine what people want, provide it in the way they almost can't say no to, and adjust to the times (by retaining the old favorite image or completely revamping, etc.).
Theoretically, you can learn a lot from reading, from business formulas and statistics. But, that's not living it. If coffee isn't your bag, you don't belong in the business.

If the forumulas are failing and your friend is not logically correcting for that, I feel there is something else going on besides what appears to be high intelligence stuck in a pattern of thinking. It's the lack of attention to reworking the logic that isn't working which tips me off. like a broken record. It's illogical. This is probably not what you looking to hear.

I think eulerfan has some good points. Yet, the young man seems to be wanting to go out into the world. Whether it is to make the most money, or be independent in the work place and/or financially. Still, he's trying to go out there in a different capacity. Maybe he would do well to take a business course or two in small business creation and management. Give him a new set of rules and see if he runs with them. ?

Cody

[[Censored]]

Meeting a Zen Master on the road,
Face him neither with words nor silence.
Give him an uppercut
And you will be called one who understands Zen.

[red5angel]

Well, I think his intellect has not been thoroughly mixed with reality, if that makes sense. He is smart and I think if he is put in the right position he could do very well for himself. However, he is young, and he has built a house for himself he rarely leaves....
Cody, what do you think the issue might be?
I think college in general would be a good thing for him, to be exposed to the rest of the world. He has done some travelling, but most of his schooling has been done through distance learning.

[eulerfan]

Oh my god, this is so awesome. All we have left is frylock. Where's frylock?

[JAZA]

I agree with Eulerfan, business doesn't rely on logic, but on strategy, information and negotiations abilities.
If your friend have this he will have no problem selling coffee, but I don't see is a big business.
I'm also a computer side of the moon guy, people like us tend to be geeks or nerds but also have some business good eye like Gates, Ellison and Jobs if they don't use logic of first level.

[Cody]

Don't know. Second hand, distance evaluation of a situation is guess work at best.
It just seems to me that a person who is logical and mathematically inclined would also check backwards and forwards and upside down when the logic did not produce the expected results. He's heading for the third strikeout here. It's illogical. However, lack of sufficient educational learning experience, outside of distance learning, could have a stunting effect. And, as you say, he is young. circumstances. I think he needs a change in circumstances. He needs people, teachers, advisors in his every day environment. He needs access to experienced people. Even some sort of internship might be of value. It's hard to say.

Does he want to go to college? You thinking of the 4-year type? I don't know. He might get bored, or he might like it. Wonder how he'd do on equivalency exams to reach more advanced courses? Lots of questions. Might not be a bad idea to suggest higher education and see if it interests him.

Sometimes, when a person is very bright and skips some steps, and has success, part of what has been missed is also a maturational process in dealing with the world. It's not all book learning. Maybe that is all that he is missing.

I'm looking at what you provide and thinking: "Now, what could cause that?" Some of what I have mentioned might not be at all relevant. Some might. trying to help. You sound like a good friend.

Cody

[ZIM]

Its not entirely a bad idea, and I'd give him points for researching it. You're also right in saying that its not all just math and that he should like what he's doing. Ppl don't drink coffee cuz they like it so much as they like the caffeine, so tell him he wants to be a drug dealer. :D

Just joking. Really tho, to appeal to his sense of logic, tell him that IF he intends to go through with it, that business is impersonal. He can NOT go into business with a friend and expect good results consistently. Tell him to analyze truthfully his strengths and weaknesses and choose ppl that make up for his deficiencies to do work that he can't.

A frinstance: I'm good at training and 'the vision thing'. If I set up a business, I'd recruit and train and guide, but find another to be CEO and trust them to make the cut throat decisions.

FWIW:)

[fa_jing]

It's like the Herbalife work-at-home model: you should use the product you are selling. Those Herbalife guys crack me up - "you can work from home" is precisely their work-at-home scheme.

"You want to lose weight, gain weight, maintain your weight?"

Kindof covers all catagories there. I haven't heard too often of people spending upwards of $100 dollars a month on herbal products so that they can "maintain their weight"
:rolleyes: :D

[kenso]

In my opinion, his behavior doesn't seem all that logical in the first place. So his "logic" consists of the following:
A. Selling coffee beans is very profitable.
B. I like profit.
C. I will be successful selling coffee beans because others have been successful selling coffee beans.

Premise C is actually an EMOTIONAL construct disguised as a logical proposition. There is no logical basis for him to think he would be successful at this particular business other than his innate intelligence. It has been shown clearly that innate intelligence and financial success have close to NO correlation at all. Interview some successful business owners. Many of them will be of average intelligence at best. In order to be successful, your friend must analyze his internal factors, not just the external factors of business:
1. What does he enjoy doing?
2. What is he good at?
3. What does he have a lot of knowledge about?
It is absolutely worthless to start a business in an area that you have no knowledge about and no interest in. You have set yourself at a competitive disadvantage compared to others who enjoy and know about what they do. Also, successful businesses have a financing plan - how did he plan to finance the capital outlays necessary to start his business? How did he plan to advertise his business so that he could differentiate himself from the rest of the market? What was his competitive advantage?

Anyway, he clearly showed his lack of logic by discounting your rational advice and going ahead with his emotional decision. Just my .02c

[Cody]

Good post.

Cody