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bodhitree
03-14-2008, 05:50 AM
Hello all

I rarely start off topic threads, but I want to know what everyone thinks about the American economy, the dollar (and its value), in both short and long terms. Do interest rates cuts = economic growth or do they just push down the value of the dollar? They say a weak dollar is good for exports, but how much of the American economy depends on exports? Don't most of our big corporations outsource manufacturing work overseas anyways? How does America stay competative with the emerging economies? A weak dollar is both a blessing and a curse to Europeans. Europeans have seen little fluctuation in gas prices, being most oil is traded in dollars the euro's strength keeps the prices the same. European exporters are suffering though.


All thoughts welcomed....












except stupid ones:D

Drake
03-14-2008, 07:10 AM
Hello all

I rarely start off topic threads, but I want to know what everyone thinks about the American economy, the dollar (and its value), in both short and long terms. Do interest rates cuts = economic growth or do they just push down the value of the dollar? They say a weak dollar is good for exports, but how much of the American economy depends on exports? Don't most of our big corporations outsource manufacturing work overseas anyways? How does America stay competative with the emerging economies? A weak dollar is both a blessing and a curse to Europeans. Europeans have seen little fluctuation in gas prices, being most oil is traded in dollars the euro's strength keeps the prices the same. European exporters are suffering though.


All thoughts welcomed....










except stupid ones:D

I don't know about the rest of Europe, but gas in Germany is ridiculously expensive.

I think the economy will recover from the housing meltdown, but it'll take a while. This won't be solved in the next 4-6 years, that's for certain.

RD'S Alias - 1A
03-14-2008, 07:15 AM
We are in deep doo doo...and it will get much, much worse before it gets better.

watch Oil and Gold prices. Gold especially is the most accurate indicator of where the economy is, and is going. When Gold prices are high, the economy is bad.

Eddie
03-14-2008, 07:17 AM
the dollar is still ok.
the South African Rand is around R8.00 per one $usd.

Gass is around R8.00 per litre (so about $1usd per litre).

Bare in mind, a loaf of bread cost around R7.50 and a 2L bottle of milk cost around R16.00.

What is an avarage basic salary (per month) for say a 30 somehting year old man doing office job, in the USA?

bodhitree
03-14-2008, 07:22 AM
We are in deep doo doo...and it will get much, much worse before it gets better.

watch Oil and Gold prices. Gold especially is the most accurate indicator of where the economy is, and is going. When Gold prices are high, the economy is bad.


yeah, gold just reached 1,000 an oz.

Eddie
03-14-2008, 07:28 AM
high gold price is good for us ;)

we get to sell you the gold

Drake
03-14-2008, 07:31 AM
high gold price is good for us ;)

we get to sell you the gold

Well maybe we'll just invade you guys next, Mr. Smarty Pants! :mad:

Black Jack II
03-14-2008, 07:34 AM
We are in deep doo doo...and it will get much, much worse before it gets better.

watch Oil and Gold prices. Gold especially is the most accurate indicator of where the economy is, and is going. When Gold prices are high, the economy is bad.

Don't fall for that trap.

The middleclass keeps getting richer, people are making more and more money, I am making more now than I ever did under slick willy.

The housing market sucks the dong, but a certain sect of housebuyers need to take PERSONAL responsibility for that mess, instead of trying to pass the buck.

SPJ
03-14-2008, 07:44 AM
still strong and growing in the 21st century.

it is still the motor/engine or dragon head of the world/global economy on the planet.

:D;):)

bodhitree
03-14-2008, 07:50 AM
Don't fall for that trap.

The middleclass keeps getting richer, people are making more and more money, I am making more now than I ever did under slick willy.

The housing market sucks the dong, but a certain sect of housebuyers need to take PERSONAL responsibility for that mess, instead of trying to pass the buck.


Not just housebuyers. Mortgage companies, banks, investment firms, the individuals only took what others were willing to give. My wife works directly with sub-prime collections. Half the time the people she's trying to collect from are in jail or deported (back) to Mexico. The banks screwed up in issuing these loans. I don't have perfect credit (mid 700's), but have never accumulated late charges or been turned to a collection agency or anything like that. When applying for an auto loan I was rejected (by one bank), and I'm certainly not "subprime". This bank was obviously doing it's work. I'm angry at the dealership because they submitted my loan info to more than one bank without telling us, and every inquiry into credit affects your score:mad: , but thats a whole other can of wax.

What does everyone see for the future of the dollar? The dollar is crucial in the global finance system. Could it ever be replaced by the Euro??? Some economies outside of the United States exclusively use the dollar (Panama certainly, El Salvador is beginning to use the dollar for everything), will they want to change?

RD'S Alias - 1A
03-14-2008, 07:53 AM
http://ezine.kungfumagazine.com/forum/showthread.php?p=847993#post847993

RD'S Alias - 1A
03-14-2008, 07:57 AM
Some economies outside of the United States exclusively use the dollar (Panama certainly, El Salvador is beginning to use the dollar for everything), will they want to change?

Reply]
Interesting. I thought they used the Balboa?

Drake
03-14-2008, 08:06 AM
Some economies outside of the United States exclusively use the dollar (Panama certainly, El Salvador is beginning to use the dollar for everything), will they want to change?

Reply]
Interesting. I thought they used the Balboa?

So if their economy is having trouble, can you then say they have a Rocky Balboa? Can ya??? Ehhhhhhhh???? :eek::eek::eek::D

RD'S Alias - 1A
03-14-2008, 08:09 AM
LOL!!! That was horrible...but I laughed anyway!! :D

ngokfei
03-14-2008, 08:17 AM
IMHO

SAve them pennies.

Its going to be a hard 6 years. Yes, we are in a recession. Not quite a depression but I'm feeling depressed;)

Curb that spending.

Forclosures on the rise, Outsourcing of middle class blue collar labor overseas, China dumping mass amounts of cheap goods onto the world market, Gas prices will hit the $4 a gallon mark by September:eek: (my prediction)

If your going to be graduating from highschool, seriously think about technical schools.

bck to the ditch digging for me:D

bodhitree
03-14-2008, 08:24 AM
Some economies outside of the United States exclusively use the dollar (Panama certainly, El Salvador is beginning to use the dollar for everything), will they want to change?

Reply]
Interesting. I thought they used the Balboa?


The Balboa is equated with the dollar, and they don't use paper balboas at all. Interestingly enough balboa coins do work in our laundry machines, parking meters and such. Everything in Panama is done in dollars, I was just there in December, I've never seen a paper Balboa, yet, and my wife is Panamanian, and I don't know if she's ever seen one! That was one of Panama's selling points to tourists, investors, and retirees, they don't need to worry about currency, because everything is done in dollars.

bodhitree
03-14-2008, 08:32 AM
The US dollar has been Panama’s currency since 1904, although it is called the Balboa for nationalistic reasons. As a consequence, fiscal policy is the government principal macroeconomic policy instrument. Because Panama does not have a central bank to print its own currency, government spending and investment is strictly bound by tax and non-tax revenues and the government’s ability to borrow. Thus, creditworthiness is linked directly to public finances. - Business Panama (http://www.businesspanama.com/investing/why_invest/usdollar.php)



Just in case you didn't believe me!

bodhitree
03-14-2008, 09:32 AM
Back on topic:

Even without other countries using the dollar as their currency, it is a common tender in many industries and often the medium between two coutries with different currencies doing business. Is there any threat to this in the near future?



What does everybody think the financial institutions can do to get out of their mess?


what to do? Does the fed make things worse (not in printing more money, but in cutting interest rates)?

RD'S Alias - 1A
03-14-2008, 09:41 AM
That was one of Panama's selling points to tourists, investors, and retirees, they don't need to worry about currency, because everything is done in dollars.

Reply]
That is *Very* interesting. Panama has some of the strictest secrecy laws on the planet. You can literally own a company out of Panama and PANAMA ITSELF will not know who owns the company....and by extension the companies assets.

I think the country exists strictly to launder money internationally and evade taxes for those living in tax oppressive countries. Considering the US dollar is thier primary currency, can you guess the nationality of it's primary tax evading, money laundering clients?

bodhitree
03-14-2008, 09:53 AM
That was one of Panama's selling points to tourists, investors, and retirees, they don't need to worry about currency, because everything is done in dollars.

Reply]
That is *Very* interesting. Panama has some of the strictest secrecy laws on the planet. You can literally own a company out of Panama and PANAMA ITSELF will not know who owns the company....and by extension the companies assets.

I think the country exists strictly to launder money internationally and evade taxes for those living in tax oppressive countries. Considering the US dollar is thier primary currency, can you guess the nationality of it's primary tax evading, money laundering clients?


Yeah, investor secrecy is a big draw, but certainly not the only one. Panama city is growing fast, there is construction everywhere! Tourism is becoming a big industry, and people are immigrating to Panama from all over (Colombia, Venezuela, Other Central American countris, US, Canada...). I can't wait to go back! The dollar goes a bit further down there also, you can eat gormet for cheap! Hopefully the growth of the city doesn't ruin the rest of the country, which is quite beautiful!

RD'S Alias - 1A
03-14-2008, 10:05 AM
Lots of people are moving to Costa Rica for the same reasons. Land prices are all over the charts there. I have found 3 acres for as little as $7500.00, with several small Tica homes on it already (No road access though, you have to own a boat). Other areas are priced similar to the US.

bodhitree
03-14-2008, 10:10 AM
Lots of people are moving to Costa Rica for the same reasons. Land prices are all over the charts there. I have found 3 acres for as little as $7500.00, with several small Tica homes on it already (No road access though, you have to own a boat). Other areas are priced similar to the US.


Costa Rica and Panama are neighbors that have a lot in common.

RD'S Alias - 1A
03-14-2008, 10:14 AM
Correct. Actually the area I want to go to is near the Costa Rica/Panama border on the Caribbean side.

My thought would be to eventually set up a Martial arts/ Eco retreat with the main focus on getting in touch with primal skills and living.

bodhitree
03-14-2008, 10:30 AM
Correct. Actually the area I want to go to is near the Costa Rica/Panama border on the Caribbean side.

My thought would be to eventually set up a Martial arts/ Eco retreat with the main focus on getting in touch with primal skills and living.
My wife has some family that lives near the costa rica border, next time we go down there we're going to try and go there.

My wife's parents are both economists and both deal with agriculture. They couldn't believe that in the US we need to label foods "organic" or "free range", because as it is right now, everything in Panama is. As the population expands though, factory farms are going to start sprouting up. I am all for development in Panama city and a better quality of life for everyone, but I hope development doesn't destroy everything good there (and everywhere else!).

Costa Rica's government is pretty good about protecting the environment.

Lucas
03-14-2008, 10:55 AM
Correct. Actually the area I want to go to is near the Costa Rica/Panama border on the Caribbean side.

My thought would be to eventually set up a Martial arts/ Eco retreat with the main focus on getting in touch with primal skills and living.

Hurry up and do that. Then, let me know when you have that set up. I need to get the hell out of this country.

Shaolin Wookie
03-14-2008, 11:26 AM
The economy should actually be improving shortly. One of my jobs is in the shipping industry. We generally see a major drop off in freight numbers preceding any severe recession. We've had that for quite a while now--the dip, that is--but business is booming right now. Going by the trends I've seen these past 4 years, it should presage a rise in the economy. It shows increased consumer confidence (corporate consumer confidence). Of course, it'll be awhile before that trend hits the market in general.

Keep you fingers crossed, and hope we can get the **** out of Iraq before gas hits 4 dollars (which it'll do either way, I suppose).:mad:

Eddie
03-15-2008, 02:08 AM
Hurry up and do that. Then, let me know when you have that set up. I need to get the hell out of this country.

I’ll swap lives with you. You come live down in SA and I move up to live in where ever it is you live ;)

RD'S Alias - 1A
03-15-2008, 10:25 AM
The economy is tied to Oil prices right now, if the stop rising we will be fine, if they don't stop rising a severe recession or even depression is on the way.

BoulderDawg
03-15-2008, 10:44 AM
Europeans have seen little fluctuation in gas prices


God I hope not. Two years ago when I was in UK I was paying 97 pence a litre. You don't even want to do the conversion on that.

Who knows what they are paying now.

Liokault
03-16-2008, 03:12 AM
God I hope not. Two years ago when I was in UK I was paying 97 pence a litre. You don't even want to do the conversion on that.

Who knows what they are paying now.


107p Unleaded, 110p DERV

BM2
03-16-2008, 08:50 AM
Don't fall for that trap.

The middleclass keeps getting richer, people are making more and more money, I am making more now than I ever did under slick willy.

The housing market sucks the dong, but a certain sect of housebuyers need to take PERSONAL responsibility for that mess, instead of trying to pass the buck.


Shoot, I read a couple of months ago that the generation that are now in their thirties are the first generation since the end of WWII to have a lower purchasing power compared to their fathers due to the eroding middle class.
The middle class was expanded due to manufacturing. With the extensive out sourcing and loss of manufacturing jobs to overseas, the middle class has suffered from lower wages as service jobs that replaced the manufacturing jobs do not pay as well or have the same benefits.
Henry Ford helped create the middle class by well paying his workers. This was not without a hidden agenda. Up until then, automobiles were more for the wealthy, he needed to expand what would be called the middle class to sell more vehicles. He also changed the way they were built from being hand crafted to being assembled in a moving line. He was the creator of the assembly line. Many employers were very angry at him as workers wanted increases in their wages too. Now we find American car makers having to halve the wages of their new workers to compete with the transplant car makers from Asia. With the lowering of the American car markers wages, the transplants followed suit and lowered their workers wages and benefits. Will this create a similar trickle down through the industry is to be seen. I would think that it would be plausible.

Now to the housing delima. Who created this mess? Lenders, whose business it is to know what the buyer can afford in a monthly loan amount setting up for failure buyers that shouldn't have received the loan?
Yes.
The rising housing market created false value in homes. The thought was that the defaulting loans would be less than what the homes would be worth later due to the rising home prices.
And the resetting of the loan. I heard a woman call in to a program on personal finances about how her loan reset to +11 per cent. If she got a fixed loan to replace the adjustable rate loan she would be subject to pre pay off penalties. These loans were shaky and the loaners knew better and now we all are suffering through higher oil prices, the loss of value in our 401ks that have them, and the economy.

Black Jack II
03-16-2008, 11:43 AM
This will come out harsh, but this is about personal responsibility in life. In a sense these defaults serve these people right.

If you take out a loan you can't possibly repay, or you fail to read the fine print, then you lose your home.

Sure, the financial institutions offered loans in a way that made them look very attractive while markets were rising, but they didn't forge your signature on the papers.

If you can't pay you're out.

At one time in our history, personal acceptance of one's actions was a key attribute, now it's the blame everyone else mentality, we better get out of that fast or we will end up even more pussified than we are now.

BM2
03-16-2008, 07:29 PM
I haven't one thing to do with the current housing/credit/recession but I am, nevertheless, being affected by it as well as everyone who is paying more for their gas and oil derived products, an increase in inflation and a possible recession that has driven down the value of my 401k by double digits. The last recession tore me a new one as I lost over 70k. I do not have pension to fall back on and have to fund my own retirement so I have been watching this closely.
There have been calls for increased government regulations for the financials that have gotten us into this mess. This was made by a government official, but I don't recall what his position is called , while he was speaking about the economy last week that was watched by Wall Street investors. As he spoke, you could watch the big board in the background drop as he gave his assesment of the economy for the next 3 to six months.

sanjuro_ronin
03-17-2008, 04:55 AM
We are more and more in a world market, a world economy, we need to adapt and understand that.
More so the automotive people.

BM2
03-17-2008, 07:56 AM
A New World Order.

bakxierboxer
03-17-2008, 08:21 AM
A New World Ordure.

Fixed that for ya.......

BoulderDawg
03-17-2008, 06:16 PM
This will come out harsh, but this is about personal responsibility in life. In a sense these defaults serve these people right.

If you take out a loan you can't possibly repay, or you fail to read the fine print, then you lose your home.

Sure, the financial institutions offered loans in a way that made them look very attractive while markets were rising, but they didn't forge your signature on the papers.

If you can't pay you're out.

At one time in our history, personal acceptance of one's actions was a key attribute, now it's the blame everyone else mentality, we better get out of that fast or we will end up even more pussified than we are now.

I have no problem with that as long as the same is true for corporate America. For all intent purposes The United States of America just bailed out Bear Stearns.

They should have let them out into bankruptcy. If my business gets in financial trouble the government is not going to come along and bail me out.

It goes back to responsibility, be it corporate or individual, if Bush is not going to lift a finger to help average Americans on individual mortages why should they help a large investment firm that gambled in the mortage market and lost.

What's good for the goose......

Black Jack II
03-17-2008, 07:41 PM
It's not really the same, but I do see your point.

One of the main starting points once the Federal Reserve was firmly established, which is both part private and part government owned, was to address serious bank issues or what was called banking panics.

The Bear Stearns deal some could claim would fall into that bracket. If part of its job is to keep a fluid banking system than this is part of its motivation, as well as to act as a central bank for America and help manage the countries money supply based on good monetary policy.

greendragon
03-17-2008, 09:30 PM
It's not that people are going bankrupt, it's that their house is worth less than they owe on it so it makes sense to walk away. The economy will get better after the fed quits interfering with the natural flow.

golden arhat
03-18-2008, 09:07 AM
All thoughts welcomed....












except stupid ones:D


**** there goes my jews rule the world argument :rolleyes:

golden arhat
03-18-2008, 09:08 AM
Well maybe we'll just invade you guys next, Mr. Smarty Pants! :mad:

i'm pretty sure if you lived in south africa and were white you would welcome an invasion with open arms !

golden arhat
03-18-2008, 09:13 AM
i dont know whats uop with america etc and i'm not going to pretend to


but as of the last year
everything ive bought from america has been so cheap its unbelievable

its like you guys permanently have a half price sale on!

its awesome:D

GLW
03-18-2008, 09:48 AM
I love the personal responsibility mantra.

TRUE that people applying for credit of any form should know what they can and cannot afford. A person applying for a loan should NOT take one that depends on everything right happening and the heavens aligning. And, if they do this, they should pay the price....

But the focus is always on the person getting the loan.

The issue we have now is that there are lending institutions that made these irresponsible loans. They thought that the housing market would stay in growth mode and that for each person that defaulted on their loan, they would get a piece of property that they would be able to turn around and sell - for more than the original price. This is similar to the used car lots that do the pay by the week. They end up selling the same car 7 or 8 times to different people. This process is why they stay in business and do well.

But when you have a large number of defaults and there is then a glut of used properties on the market - and money dries up...all of a sudden, the lenders are stuck with property they can't sell, negative cash flow, and money that is not coming in.

So, WHERE is the responsibiity mantra for the lending institutions? It is equally irresponsible for THEM to be making loans to risky prospects. If they make the loans and they get the default they can resell, are they not guilty of questionable business practices. And, if they get what they have now - large numbers of defaults that then begin to put the banks in trouble.

We can't let them fail - unless we like a 1929 style crash....and to bail them out is just as bad....making them able to NOT have the consequences of their irresponsible actions.

If you want to apply the responsibility mantra...at least apply it to both sides. What we have right now is a "Blame the person losing their home---and bail out the lenders who behaved stupidly" That is hardly letting the reality of ones actions work.