The FBI Stats RE: Group fight

[blackjesus]

Someone brought up the urbanmyth of 80% of fights ended on the ground the other day.

I don't agree with it but I want to find the original article so I can explain to people who believe it is true.

Anyone can post a link?

Many thanks :-)

[donbdc]

In response to that one I always have said "they don't start on the ground".
But my favorite myth is," the first punch always wins". My response to that one is, "that might be true sometimes but for sure the last 8 stomps to the head always wins".

Just havin fun!
Don Berry

[MartialDev]

Someone brought up the urbanmyth of 80% of fights ended on the ground the other day.

I don't agree with it but I want to find the original article so I can explain to people who believe it is true.

Anyone can post a link?

Many thanks :-)

It is possible that "the original article" never actually existed. After all, 37% of all stats are made up on the spot.

[Frost]

the article did exist but i have not seen it for a while, and it covered FBI arrests if i remember correctly, so of course restraining an opponent woul;d mean going to the ground more often than not :)

here is one study done, hope it help


Do Most Fights Go to the Ground? (Research I conducted)
Posted on March 11, 2008 by jiujitsu365
BJJ COMIC: Mouthguard


You can also check out my writings and research at Psychology Today: Communication Central




By Bakari Akil II, Ph.D. [Warning: Longer than usual post]

People who have been following MMA, submission grappling and martial arts since 1994 have been aware of the increasing emphasis placed on ground fighting. Yes, a lot of the push is because ground-fighting experts are trying to convince people to become involved in their martial art or trying to attract more students to their studios. However, there is an extreme seriousness to their claims as well. People can get injured, maimed or killed if they aren’t able to defend themselves.

As a serious MMA or submission grappling fan you’ve probably either heard or read the following claims:


Ninety to Ninety-five percent of fights go to the ground; or

Most fights go to the ground

These claims have become a part of the lexicon of grappling gurus and their participating disciples, including me. However, is it true?

As a person who has been involved in some aspect of martial arts since I was nine years old, I have been apart of the tradition of accepting claims, verbatim, from martial arts professionals. Most of the advice has been wise, while other times it has landed me in situations I don’t want to talk about. So when I heard this claim coming from so many Jiu-jitsu and submission grappling experts in the mid 1990s I accepted it at face value.

However, as an academic, this statement over the last few years has begun to bother me. I began to wonder on what basis this claim can be made. Are there any studies that have been conducted to verify these assertions? Finally, I reached a standstill in my thoughts on the subject. I needed to know what was fueling the mantra that 90 to 95 percent of fights go to the ground. Is it an urban myth or is it for real?

So over a period of three months I designed an implemented an exploratory study with the expressed interest of trying to see if there was any validity in the claim that 90 to 95 percent of fights go to the ground or that most fights go to the ground. Over 300 street fights were analyzed during this study. The results were clarifying as well as totally unexpected.

For the purposes of my study, I needed actual fights between average citizens. However, it is nearly impossible to find access to enough physical fights between two people to analyze in person, especially in a timely and safe manner. Therefore an alternative method had to be chosen in order to study this question. This problem was resolved by using the readily available data uploaded and archived on the popular video sharing site, YouTube. The video sharing website provided the researcher with an abundant amount of data to analyze the question regarding how often fights end up on the ground and by what methods do fighters end up on the ground. For the purposes of this study, a content analysis was conducted where 300 fights were dissected over a two month period in order to address the question of whether 90 or 95 percent of fights go to the ground.

For a more detailed description of the abstract, literature review, hypothesis, methodology, findings and conclusions, contact bakil@mgc.edu.

Below are the research questions and the findings from the study:

Research Question

RQ1: What percentage of fights end with both fighters having gone to the ground at some point during the physical confrontation?

RQ2: What percentage of fights end with only one fighter having gone to the ground at some point during the physical confrontation?

RQ3: By what methods do fighters end up fighting off the ground? (i.e., punch, kick, takedown, push)

.

[Frost]

Part 2.............


findings


although the findings cannot be generalized to the entire population; in this study both fighters ended up on the ground in 42% of the fights analyzed. This percentage increased substantially (72%) when analyzed for at least one fighter going to the ground.

So what do these numbers indicate for research questions one (rq1) and two (rq2)? It means that the people who have been making these claims are not far off the mark. They just have to be more specific. In other words, there is more than a good chance that if two people fight, one of them is going to end up on the ground (72% in this study). The chance that both will end up there is much less (42% in this study), but it is still substantial enough that one should focus on ground defense.

The third research question that needed to be answered is how do those fighters end up on the ground? The answer to that query is that in our study, 57% of the fighters who ended up on the ground were taken down by a throw, a trip or being pulled to the ground. Being pushed only accounted for 7% of fighters who ended up on the ground. So learning how to grapple and more specifically; how to apply and stop takedowns is vital to fighting.

The other most common way that fighters ended up on the ground was by being punched. This accounted for 35% of the total incidents where a fighter was sent to the ground. One other important point is for martial artists or others who might rely on kicking techniques. Out of 300 analyzed fights and 600 fighters, only one person fell to the ground because of a kick. However, that kick did result in a knockout of the person on the receiving end.

What happens when fighters hit the ground?

One very interesting finding from this study involved what happens to fighters once they do fall to the ground. At the following rates, the first person to hit the ground faced the following outcome. They either lost the fight (59%) or there was no discernible victor (33%), essentially a draw. Those who hit the ground second or remained standing faced different outcomes. They either won the fight (59%), nearly sixty percent, or no discernible victor could be declared (33%). This finding recurred repeatedly even if only one person went to the ground or if both people went to the ground. It even applied to situations where both fighters ended up on the ground and the person who initiated the takedown or pushed or punched someone in that direction landed on the ground first. In this study, fighters who hit the ground first were the clear victors in less than 5% of fights observed.

This indicates that in a street fight it is a major no-no to hit the ground first in any way. The findings were so one sided in this category it is highly likely that this is a major factor in determining who wins fights. Future studies should replicate these results.

Women should also be very careful to make sure that there hair is pinned up in an altercation as many takedowns involving women were due to their opponents (women) grabbing their hair (19%) and using it as a tool to control their head movement. In this study it was almost a guaranteed takedown if only one woman had control of the other woman’s hair. The other option was being pummeled. In one fight, a man’s ‘dred-locked’ hair was also used to throw him to the ground. I think further research would demonstrate that hair grabbing is not a habit related to gender, but availability.

Another finding that could support the argument that people should learn ground defense is that the first fighter to hit the ground usually lost the scramble for positional dominance. They were either quickly mounted, side mounted or had blows reigned down on them from many angles. Although the majority of the positional dominance observed would be considered crude from a trained martial artist’s perspective, it did demonstrate why ground training is necessary. Most of the combatants were at a loss of what to do when they were being controlled and subsequently pummeled.

Who’s fighting who?

In reference to the characteristics of the fighters in this study, demographic questions such as age, ethnicity or race could not be asked. However, records were kept using this researcher’s best judgment. Of the 600 combatants who fought, their opponents usually looked like them in a number of categories. Men fought men. Women fought women. Ethnicities or races appeared to be similar as in whites fighting whites, blacks vs. Blacks, etc. Combatants also appeared to be the same age. Old men fought old men, teenagers fought what appeared to be teenagers and adults fought adults. This study suggests that a person involved in a street fight is most likely going to fight someone just like them.

Tips for: Avoiding conflict or inevitable confrontations

other interesting things to point out are that although some fights appeared to be spontaneous, most of them had an incubation period where many decisions led up to the ultimate physical confrontation. From studying these fights it is this researcher’s opinion that many of them could have been avoided. However, in cases where a fight is unavoidable, the following advice would be offered:

Never allow anyone to invade your zone of safety (a distance where they can quickly ’sucker punch,’ push, pull or grab you without you being able to react).




Do not walk up to anyone ‘talking trash’ or allow them to ‘talk trash’ to you. Either way someone will most likely be hit mid-sentence.


Either fight or exit the scene. Make the decision quickly. Do not argue and do not posture up face to face, chest to chest or shoulder to shoulder. (watch out for head butts!)


do not try to fight more than one person, especially if you are alone.


Do not allow yourself to get mounted. (where your opponent is sitting on your chest with both of their legs straddling your ribcage.) this was the absolute worst position for the fighters in this study; and most important:


Do not be the first person to hit the ground!

So, there you have it; an exploratory study to try to find out if 90 to 95 percent of fights end up on the ground. The results offered in this study indicate that 90 to 95 percent is too high of a percentage rate. It is probably closer to 42% where both fighters hit the ground and 72% where at least one fighter ends up on the ground.

In the final analysis, an overwhelming majority of fights did end where at least one fighter ended up on the ground at some point. As this was an exploratory study, more are definitely needed to explore this topic and other grappling or mma related issues. However, what was probably the most important finding in this study is that if you are untrained and are the first person to end up on the ground in a fight there is a good chance that you will lose and the best you can hope for is that no victor can be declared.


You can also check out my writings at psychology today: Communication central

bakari akil ii is an assistant professor of communication at middle georgia college and received his ph.d. In mass communications from florida state university. He has studied no-gi brazilian jiu jitsu for over three years and also holds a green belt in judo. He trains with team praxis in macon, ga. For more information on this study contact bakari akil at bakil@fccj.edu

[blackjesus]

Thanks dude!
When my fellow students asked my sifu about ground fight, sifu quoted grandmaster's joke - we only wrestle with women.

I asked sifu, what should I do if I'm on the ground.
He asked: why would you be on the ground?

[Frost]

Thanks dude!
When my fellow students asked my sifu about ground fight, sifu quoted grandmaster's joke - we only wrestle with women.

I asked sifu, what should I do if I'm on the ground.
He asked: what would you be on the ground?

no problem, regardless of what any teacher says if those stats are to be believed you need to learn how to get up if knocked down and i think it all depends on where you live. If you are in a society that does not have a tradition of grappling or takedowns then your need to learn those things and how to defend against them is less.

But if you come from a country which has a tradition of wrestling and judo (or rugby union or league lol) then the need to learn how to defend agaoinst take downs and ground and pound is probably a bit higher as the chances of running into someone who knows how to take you down is higher

[m1k3]

Frost, I wonder what the stats are about going to the ground when one of the participants wants it to go to the ground.

Here in the states you don't worry too much about ruggers but there are a lot of Americian Football players as well as high school and college wrestlers.

And to answer Sifu's question about what you would be doing on the ground: losing.

:D

[blackjesus]

oh sorry. it was a typo.

It should be "why would you be on the ground?"

sorry everyone. sorry sifu :-)

[Frost]

Frost, I wonder what the stats are about going to the ground when one of the participants wants it to go to the ground.

Here in the states you don't worry too much about ruggers but there are a lot of Americian Football players as well as high school and college wrestlers.

And to answer Sifu's question about what you would be doing on the ground: losing.

:D

then i think the stats would go up alot, 80-90% figure that the gracies quote would be about right but i would have to check and find some stats for that. [I] have yet to see a fight that one party wanted to take to the ground that didn't go there, hell the stats i posted showed 72% ended with atleast 1 party on the ground in fights were they were not trained and did not want to go to the ground.

[Frost]

oh sorry. it was a typo.

It should be "why would you be on the ground?"

sorry everyone. sorry sifu :-)

maybe because you slipped, fell over something, got knocked down or take down, as one coach put it to me once sh*t happens even monkeys fall out of trees:)

the point is not if you want to go to the ground or not, the point is if it goes there can you survive and get back up?

[sanjuro_ronin]

Ah stats....

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e393/jonilee/SexPanther1.jpg

[m1k3]

then i think the stats would go up alot, 80-90% figure that the gracies quote would be about right but i would have to check and find some stats for that. [I] have yet to see a fight that one party wanted to take to the ground that didn't go there, hell the stats i posted showed 72% ended with atleast 1 party on the ground in fights were they were not trained and did not want to go to the ground.

That's kind of what I thought. As one of the Michado's is reported to have said: "I am a shark, the ground is my ocean and most people can't even swim.":eek:

[Lee Chiang Po]

That's kind of what I thought. As one of the Michado's is reported to have said: "I am a shark, the ground is my ocean and most people can't even swim.":eek:

You can not compare MMA fighters to everyday people. I have seen a lot of fights go to ground, but only because one or both lost balance and ended up there. They continued to bite and gouge, but no jiujitsu. Just because you get taken to the ground does not mean you are about to get whipped. I have had larger men get me off my feet, but once down I continued to punish him. The world is not a ring or octagon. I have black belts in jap jiujitsu, and am fairly good at it, but am loath to go to ground because it makes you vulnerable to attack from outside. I have said this before, and will say it again. Anyone outside a sports fighting ring that deliberately goes to ground is foolish.
Last night I watched some octagon from back when they didn't have many rules and no gloves. Royce Gracie before he got caught using steriods. Looks a whole lot different from todays octagon fights. Because no one wanted to be hit bare knuckle they did not seem to want to stand and trade punches, but would try to wrestle their opponent to the floor. That is ring fighting where you are one on one. In any situation where you are involved in an altercation, and you seem to be getting the best end of it, your opponents will try to intervene, and this usually includes kicking and punching your blind side. A good example was on Operation Repo the other night. Some MMA hotshot squared off with the bald wrestler guy, and took him to ground. He didn't get a full mount, which hardly matters, as the other repo guy grabbed him around the neck and took him off and down where both of them disabled him and held him in an arm bar. He had this silly idea that you have to go down to whip someone. Unless you are one on one and you are skilled in some serious manner you are putting yourself at great risk.

[Frost]

You can not compare MMA fighters to everyday people. I have seen a lot of fights go to ground, but only because one or both lost balance and ended up there. They continued to bite and gouge, but no jiujitsu. Just because you get taken to the ground does not mean you are about to get whipped. I have had larger men get me off my feet, but once down I continued to punish him. The world is not a ring or octagon. I have black belts in jap jiujitsu, and am fairly good at it, but am loath to go to ground because it makes you vulnerable to attack from outside. I have said this before, and will say it again. Anyone outside a sports fighting ring that deliberately goes to ground is foolish.
Last night I watched some octagon from back when they didn't have many rules and no gloves. Royce Gracie before he got caught using steriods. Looks a whole lot different from todays octagon fights. Because no one wanted to be hit bare knuckle they did not seem to want to stand and trade punches, but would try to wrestle their opponent to the floor. That is ring fighting where you are one on one. In any situation where you are involved in an altercation, and you seem to be getting the best end of it, your opponents will try to intervene, and this usually includes kicking and punching your blind side. A good example was on Operation Repo the other night. Some MMA hotshot squared off with the bald wrestler guy, and took him to ground. He didn't get a full mount, which hardly matters, as the other repo guy grabbed him around the neck and took him off and down where both of them disabled him and held him in an arm bar. He had this silly idea that you have to go down to whip someone. Unless you are one on one and you are skilled in some serious manner you are putting yourself at great risk.

why do you equate MMA with ground fighting, and grappling with ground fighting? MY clinch game is good enough to f*ck most guys up without ever having to take them down ( as is most MMA guys clinch games), and if i do take them down i can do it quickly enough and cleanly enough to stay on my feet or hit knee on stomach and punish them from there....but heres the thing if it does go to the ground i know i can get back up safely because i practise this against 100kg judo guys and pro MMA fighters..i also know i can shield myself against another guy with his mate, beacuse i practise this too on occasion (you will be amazed at the number of sports guys who do this too) do you?

[friday]

Frost!!! your're the man.

[m1k3]

why do you equate MMA with ground fighting, and grappling with ground fighting? MY clinch game is good enough to f*ck most guys up without ever having to take them down ( as is most MMA guys clinch games), and if i do take them down i can do it quickly enough and cleanly enough to stay on my feet or hit knee on stomach and punish them from there....but heres the thing if it does go to the ground i know i can get back up safely because i practise this against 100kg judo guys and pro MMA fighters..i also know i can shield myself against another guy with his mate, beacuse i practise this too on occasion (you will be amazed at the number of sports guys who do this too) do you?

Good post. Also, not all fights are against multiple opponents or with weapons. In your typical 1 on 1 situation I am very much interested on getting whomever I am fighting on the ground simply because there are so many people who know NOTHING about grappling and it gives me a distinct advantage. This is based on the number of times I have rolled with new white belts and I had no problem in getting them down and acheiving a superior position. For the most part size, strength and previous training in other martial didn't matter. Of course there are always exceptions ( the guy who was a high school wrestling coach for example :eek:).

[Frost]

Good post. Also, not all fights are against multiple opponents or with weapons. In your typical 1 on 1 situation I am very much interested on getting whomever I am fighting on the ground simply because there are so many people who know NOTHING about grappling and it gives me a distinct advantage. This is based on the number of times I have rolled with new white belts and I had no problem in getting them down and acheiving a superior position. For the most part size, strength and previous training in other martial didn't matter. Of course there are always exceptions ( the guy who was a high school wrestling coach for example :eek:).

true and for that matter why is it always assumed he has friends and i don't, most sports guys hang out together, go to fights together etc. i feel confident going to the ground with a few pro fighters watching my back :)

also for some reason people always equate ground fighting with the guard or mount, if i put someone down i am taking knee on belly and dropping hard shots, or standing up in his guard and soccer kicking him lol this allows me freedom of movement if his mates join in. and you are right it is very very easy to beat someone one on one on the ground if they have no training, and size and strength do not equate to much on the ground (lack of leverage tec) so sometimes it makes sense to go there

[Frost]

Frost!!! your're the man.

sorry if i came across as an a*s i just hate it when people make assumptions about combat sports and sports fighters without first hand expereince, i try not to do the same and only comment on TCMA i have trained in

[friday]

Frost - don't worry.
I just appreciate your frustration when a particular category of TMA people say the same things over and over again...

I agree with you on alot of your points...

[sideslider]

I also base all my research for my papers off of youtube videos...

but intresting...

[Xin quan]

And to answer Sifu's question about what you would be doing on the ground: losing

Nominated for best line of the thread.

[Dragonzbane76]

You can not compare MMA fighters to everyday people. I have seen a lot of fights go to ground, but only because one or both lost balance and ended up there. They continued to bite and gouge, but no jiujitsu. Just because you get taken to the ground does not mean you are about to get whipped. I have had larger men get me off my feet, but once down I continued to punish him. The world is not a ring or octagon. I have black belts in jap jiujitsu, and am fairly good at it, but am loath to go to ground because it makes you vulnerable to attack from outside. I have said this before, and will say it again. Anyone outside a sports fighting ring that deliberately goes to ground is foolish.
Last night I watched some octagon from back when they didn't have many rules and no gloves. Royce Gracie before he got caught using steriods. Looks a whole lot different from todays octagon fights. Because no one wanted to be hit bare knuckle they did not seem to want to stand and trade punches, but would try to wrestle their opponent to the floor. That is ring fighting where you are one on one. In any situation where you are involved in an altercation, and you seem to be getting the best end of it, your opponents will try to intervene, and this usually includes kicking and punching your blind side. A good example was on Operation Repo the other night. Some MMA hotshot squared off with the bald wrestler guy, and took him to ground. He didn't get a full mount, which hardly matters, as the other repo guy grabbed him around the neck and took him off and down where both of them disabled him and held him in an arm bar. He had this silly idea that you have to go down to whip someone. Unless you are one on one and you are skilled in some serious manner you are putting yourself at great risk.

As frost so eloquently stated, why do people assume when speaking of the ground you are speaking of MMA? You cannot go into a fight assuming that you will stay on your feet. What you want and what will happen are 2 different things. Situations dictate what you should be advancing upon. I guess if you are in a place with a bunch of people that wanna kick your a$$ then you probably should leave and fast, and if you do get into an altercation then you probably shouldn't go to the ground. But on the next level, as frost put in, I usually travel around, if out, with a crew of friends myself (which most are people whom train).

Thing is if you are in a situation where you are stuck in a dark alley with only yourself, then my point is you shouldn't have been there in the first place. Be aware of your surroundings.

[RenDaHai]

Great Study!

THe thing that bothers me about the stat '90% of fights end up on the ground' is that a lot of people imply it and take it to mean that the fight is 'Decided' on the ground.

Although as you have pointed out that 72% end with at least one fighter on the ground. THis is good, but let me give you an example: Say a fighter goes down because the other guy hit him so hard he was dazed, then the second fighter mounts him and pounds to conclusion. In this situation the fight was really decided standing up, the ground part was not a fight, it was an @sskicking.

HOw many of the fights where both parties went to the ground and the fight was really fought and decided while on the ground?

Because I know the statistic doesn't say that but that is what alot of people imply when they use it.

I mean, if someone gets KO'd they fall to the ground, but that shouldn't count right?

[Frost]

Great Study!

THe thing that bothers me about the stat '90% of fights end up on the ground' is that a lot of people imply it and take it to mean that the fight is 'Decided' on the ground.

Although as you have pointed out that 72% end with at least one fighter on the ground. THis is good, but let me give you an example: Say a fighter goes down because the other guy hit him so hard he was dazed, then the second fighter mounts him and pounds to conclusion. In this situation the fight was really decided standing up, the ground part was not a fight, it was an @sskicking.

HOw many of the fights where both parties went to the ground and the fight was really fought and decided while on the ground?

Because I know the statistic doesn't say that but that is what alot of people imply when they use it.

I mean, if someone gets KO'd they fall to the ground, but that shouldn't count right?


the straight KO's shouldn't count no but being knocked down mounted and punched should as an MMA trained guy trains to deal with this and the ability to recoer whilst getting hit is a valuable one

but you are right the stats don't show what you are asking, but they do show that learning how to move on the ground and get back up safely if knocked down might be a useful thing to know

[David Jamieson]

Mathematics, erudition, penmanship, writing skills, etiquette and protocol are not the strong points of martial artists for the most part.

:-)

any data given by a martial artist needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
If someone uses a percentage, it behooves them to cite where it came from, otherwise deal with it as if it is a bs number.

In short, no one has ever actually measured how many fights go to the ground, stay stand up or how long they last. TO state that you know that x% of any fight does anything is a glaring indication of one's own ignorance more so than their understanding of something.

just sayin...