OT: Is Kung Fu Good Women Deterrent?

[neilhytholt]

I have been trading futures for quite some time now. I call my own shots, use my own methods, and only ask my broker for things like when I want to get an ideas of the fundementals.

Futures are remarkable predictable when you put the effort in to study them.

I basically trade breakouts of congestive patterns. I place my trade either in the closeing range the day of the break out, or I wait till morning to make sure it closed out of the congestion. I set and exit stop just before the next level of resistance/or support, and I place my stops loss the same way.


I am what you would call a swing trader, I only take short swings. I am in and out 1-3 days on most trades, sometimes I day trade, and I occasionally position trade if I feel a long term trend is in play (for exmple, on a breakout of a long tight channel).

Yeah, I worked on those patterns because that's how Larry Williams made his $$$. Unfortunately that only works when the market's trading in one direction because when it's not the swing-back will kill you.

If you notice that the year he made his million for the year, which I think was 1987, there was a big run-up in the market and he was up like 4 million, and then lost like 2.5 million at the end of the year.

IMHO that's the reason these big speculators get into the course business because they can make consistent money that way. But they cannot make consistent money speculating. If they could make consistent money speculating then they would not be giving courses they would be retired.

[Royal Dragon]

I would not trade Forex, I like hard commodities, Corn, Hogs, Gold etc...

My system got me in and out of cattle reacnetly, only to see it shoot way up after. I had a feeling it might do that, but my system said get out, so i took a small profit, instead of the big one. It's OK though, because if it had gone the other way, i would have lost.

I have found it is better to take a lot of small slices, rather than go for the big trend. The little slices are more predictable. My profits are generally about 300.00 to maybe 800 a contract, and my losses are genrally 300.00-400.00, but most are UNDER 300.00

[Royal Dragon]

Yeah, I worked on those patterns because that's how Larry Williams made his $$$. Unfortunately that only works when the market's trading in one direction because when it's not the swing-back will kill you.


Reply]
That is why I take small slices out of the market rather than follow trends, and use my exit stops when I PLACE an order. I want to be out while it is still moving my way, rather than get emotional about it, watch it turn against me and sit there racking up the losses hoping against hope it will turn my way again, only to watch it hit my orginal stop loss with a $400.00 loss per contract, when I was up $800.00 three days prior.

I think Larry Williams used some sort of reversal system based on 1,2,3, or head and shoulder patterns. What his method dose not tell, is those patterns are NOT reversals to trends, they just mean the CURRENT trend is over. The market may drop down to the next level of support, and start a new up trend, or just meander sideways. infact most meander sideways after a break out from a pattern, or they just move too choppy to trade. HOWEVER, the initial break out generally followes the rules till the first level of support or resistance, so if you only go for that little slice, you get your percentage of good trades really high.

You don't make as much, and as we see with my reacent cattle trade, you miss big moves a lot, but I feel it is better to be right more often than not, rather than gamble on the trend that may, or maynot be there.

[neilhytholt]

I would not trade Forex, I like hard commodities, Corn, Hogs, Gold etc...

My system got me in and out of cattle reacnetly, only to see it shoot way up after. I had a feeling it might do that, but my system said get out, so i took a small profit, instead of the big one. It's OK though, because if it had gone the other way, i would have lost.

I have found it is better to take a lot of small slices, rather than go for the big trend. The little slices are more predictable. My profits are generally about 300.00 to maybe 800 a contract, and my losses are genrally 300.00-400.00, but most are UNDER 300.00

That's pretty good. Yeah, I traded hard commodities for a while but I didn't like the liquidity and executions I got from small account sizes (10,000) in the CBOT or CME. Basically I kept getting screwed on my executions so I quit that.

There was one other strategy I figured out on grains was pretty good, can't remember the exact formula, but it was some sort of volatility breakout system like it sounds like you're using. But the ROI was too low, like 10%-15% a year or something, to make it interesting for me. But I never bothered trading it because of the faulty executions.

IMHO those exchanges totally screw over little traders on hard commodities.

[neilhytholt]

Yeah, I worked on those patterns because that's how Larry Williams made his $$$. Unfortunately that only works when the market's trading in one direction because when it's not the swing-back will kill you.


Reply]
That is why I take small slices out of the market rather than follow trends, and use my exit stops when I PLACE an order. I want to be out while it is still moving my way, rather than get emotional about it, watch it turn against me and sit there racking up the losses hoping against hope it will turn my way again, only to watch it hit my orginal stop loss with a $400.00 loss per contract, when I was up $800.00 three days prior.

Yeah, that's good. Hope is a killer. I lost about 4000 to hope when I first started.

Edit ... anyways, it sounds like you did your homework, so should be interesting to see how it works out for you.

[Royal Dragon]

I lost 36,000.00.....in a few hours following Ken Rodgers methods.

I had made over 70,000 that summer, starting with 5,000, but I was not working, and taking it out to live off of, so when the loss hit, I was out of the game for a long, long time.

As for the little guy syndrom, I have not found that useing naked futures, but in Options oh yes! infact, I don't think I ever got a good option fill yet. I only trade them if I feel a long term trend is in play, and then it's way out of the money for $70-$100 tops. that way if it comes into the money, I make out, if not I didn't loose much and i don't cry.

[neilhytholt]

I lost 36,000.00.....in a few hours following Ken Rodgers methods.

I had made over 70,000 that summer, starting with 5,000, but I was not working, and taking it out to live off of, so when the loss hit, I was out of the game for a long, long time.

As for the little guy syndrom, I have not found that useing naked futures, but in Options oh yes! infact, I don't think I ever got a good option fill yet. I only trade them if I feel a long term trend is in play, and then it's way out of the money for $70-$100 tops. that way if it comes into the money, I make out, if not I didn't loose much and i don't cry.

Options are the worst!!! Really liquid markets like grains, cattle, etc., are good for nearby contract months. I had most of the trouble in softs, metals and far contact months.

Overall I think I'm about even in the futures market. But it wasn't due to good trading strategies.

Forex is a bit different. If you watch what happens with big money flows during the day, you can guess with some probability what will happen at night when the banks do their big exchanges. But it's a lot of work and you have to stay up basically 24 hours a day, so it's not really worth it.

Edit ... actually for people living in Britain or Europe, it would be a lot easier.

[IronFist]

So who can give me info about setting up off-shore accounts?

[neilhytholt]

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and Interpol and various agencies are carefully tracking the funds that go between countries because they are looking for terrorist funding. Not to mention the IRS requires you to state any funds you have in any account over $10,000 as long as you are a U.S. citizen.

So it's complicated. You probably better speak to a professional (good accountant) so they can set you up with the proper vehicle.

It would be a lot easier just not to marry the person you're planning on divorcing.

[Hard Fists]

This one was way, way, way out there, and was far beyond the normal mentally wacked female.

Yeah, but I bet she was a freak in the sack. I've dated a couple of pretty out there chicks and the bedwork just makes it bearable for a while.

[BruceSteveRoy]

wow, i cant believe this thread is still growing. I know i have come up with some insane solutions in the past. but hear me out on this one. i think what you should do is find an old, old lady with lots and lots of money. wine and dine her. romance her. get her to put you in her will. and when she croaks you are set. just tack a copy of the will to the head board so you can have a little motivation when you are knocking boots.

[Royal Dragon]

Hard Fists,
Yeah, I highly suspect that as well! She certianly talked like it. She had a sound to her voice at times, like she really needed it!

I'm pretty picky about who I sleep with. I have only been with 6 women my whole life, but she was tempting!

neilhytholt,
Yeah I have had problems wiht options in the Softs as well. It seems the problem is if you go out of the money, in a back month because you are trying to position trade.

I bought a 1300 put when Sugar broke out of a huge triangle recently. It made some $$ at first, but then had a minor correction. The underlying future didn't even pull back that far and my option lost all it's gains. Then as it returned to it's trend, the Futures dropped BELOW where it was when it was making profit, but the option barley moved. The market has since reversed, and my option is now worthlesss. I have till October, and the Weekly chart looks bleak, so I may get my money back, but at this point, I think it's gone.

The naked futures play worked as useual, but because I tried to use an option to position trade the larger trend, so I lost $250.00 on that. I should have just stuck to my normal game plan with this one.

[Water Dragon]

^ Explain the "hedging" thing. It seems to me like you wouldn't make money either way then. Either one goes up and the other goes down, or vice versa. That seems counterproductive to me.

Let's say I short 100 Dell at 25 and buy a call for 100 Dell @ 22 for $ 300. If the stop drops to 20, I pick it up for a $ 500 profit. I'm out $ 300 for my call (which gives me the right to buy at 22) and end up with a $ 200 profit.

[Water Dragon]

Usually it's the other way around. You buy or sell the shares while writing a call or a put. Then you get to keep the call/put premium.

Edit ... I better say call or put premium, otherwise people are going to say I'm using a butterfly ... LOL

You have it backward. When you buy, you pay a premium for the right to buy/sell. When you sell, you receive the premium and have an obligation to buy/sell.

[IronFist]

Let's say I short 100 Dell at 25 and buy a call for 100 Dell @ 22 for $ 300. If the stop drops to 20, I pick it up for a $ 500 profit. I'm out $ 300 for my call (which gives me the right to buy at 22) and end up with a $ 200 profit.

Puts and calls... I need to study up on options before I reply to you.

The only thing I know is stocks.