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Thread: Challenging the 85% rule

  1. #1
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    Challenging the 85% rule

    With the rise of MMA and BJJ, odd statistics about ground fighting started to appear...not sure where these numbers came from (most likely ground fighting arts themselves) but I don't buy it.

    It usually comes in the form of this statement "85% of all fights end up on the ground". They usually don't clarify if it's street or MMA fights that do but I'm willing to bet that this statement is false in either case. I've seen or been in a few 'street' fights over the years and usually the only one who ends up on the ground is the guy getting knocked out or the one turtling to protect himself against pummeling.

    If it's a street fight going to ground is a mistake in my mind, it limits your options of escape and makes you more susceptible to attack from other unseen opponents potentially getting blindsided. If ground fighting is what you've trained in, I suppose it's your best option, most of the street fights I've seen usually involve multiple attackers, blunt weapons or bar type weapons...bottles and pool cues, etc. Do you think that 85% of all street fights end up on the ground?

    Even if we use the MMA model, I'd say that the statement is also false, it seems to me that more fighters are choosing to keep the fights on their feet even if they both have BJJ blackbelts. The percentage would closer to 50-60% of all MMA fights end up on the ground? Again I have no empirical evidence, just a rough estimate of the fights I watch. Do you think that the 85% rule applies to MMA?
    "if its ok for shaolin wuseng to break his vow then its ok for me to sneak behind your house at 3 in the morning and bang your dog if buddha is in your heart then its ok"-Bawang

    "I get what you have said in the past, but we are not intuitive fighters. As instinctive fighters, we can chuck spears and claw and bite. We are not instinctively god at punching or kicking."-Drake

    "Princess? LMAO hammer you are such a pr^t"-Frost

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    i been in two fights that 'went to the ground' I was just a teenager for one and I 'gnp' the guy, before that was a term that i know of. I had not ever even trained. the other i was brutally beaten by a group of people. pretty unavoidable.

    all the other tussles ive had have not gone to ground fighting. not a large amount by any means, just a handful.

    one i hit this dude with my skateboard and busted his face up and ran lol. he went to the ground.
    For whoso comes amongst many shall one day find that no one man is by so far the mightiest of all.

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    Every fight that I never finished standing, I finished on the ground.
    Psalms 144:1
    Praise be my Lord my Rock,
    He trains my hands for war, my fingers for battle !

  4. #4
    What percentage were skilled MA people ?

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    Psalms 144:1
    Praise be my Lord my Rock,
    He trains my hands for war, my fingers for battle !

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Hebrew Hammer View Post
    With the rise of MMA and BJJ, odd statistics about ground fighting started to appear...not sure where these numbers came from (most likely ground fighting arts themselves) but I don't buy it.

    It usually comes in the form of this statement "85% of all fights end up on the ground". They usually don't clarify if it's street or MMA fights that do but I'm willing to bet that this statement is false in either case. I've seen or been in a few 'street' fights over the years and usually the only one who ends up on the ground is the guy getting knocked out or the one turtling to protect himself against pummeling.

    If it's a street fight going to ground is a mistake in my mind, it limits your options of escape and makes you more susceptible to attack from other unseen opponents potentially getting blindsided. If ground fighting is what you've trained in, I suppose it's your best option, most of the street fights I've seen usually involve multiple attackers, blunt weapons or bar type weapons...bottles and pool cues, etc. Do you think that 85% of all street fights end up on the ground?

    Even if we use the MMA model, I'd say that the statement is also false, it seems to me that more fighters are choosing to keep the fights on their feet even if they both have BJJ blackbelts. The percentage would closer to 50-60% of all MMA fights end up on the ground? Again I have no empirical evidence, just a rough estimate of the fights I watch. Do you think that the 85% rule applies to MMA?
    Maybe a kinda my style is superior than this persons style so use mine kinda thing.

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  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Robinhood View Post
    What percentage were skilled MA people ?
    Probably 98% unskilled.

  9. #9
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    From the link...


    Fighting Myths - notes from the American Society of Law Enforcement Trainers Conference

    One of the myths about personal protection is the old misquoted statistic, "90% of all fights wind up on the ground." This statistic has been used to sell ground fighting systems as the ultimate in self defense. If you have been in the martial arts or personal protection game long enough you have certainly heard this thing tossed around. You may have even heard the source - "according to the LAPD".

    That statistic is wrong, AND misused.



    The ASLET conference featured training in joint lock takedowns with retired sergeant John L. Sommers, the very man who conducted the use of force study with the LAPD and designed their defensive tactics program. His study looked at 6000 use of force reports from the LAPD and found that 60% of the time the arresting officer was knocked to the ground. One of the major reasons for this is that California has the 3 strikes rule and recidivist criminals are more likely to fight back to try to get away. Here are some of the main problems with the way this statistic is misused:



    1. The percentage is 60% not 90% the numbers are frequently inflated to seem more convincing. While 60% is a majority, that means that more than one third of incidents did not result in an officer being knocked down. Also, the statistics did not measure "fights" but officer use of force reports.

    2. The actual study was of officer use of force incidents in LA and did not study self defense situations involving civilians. You cannot apply the data from one representative sample to an entirely different population. If 98% of the population of the Philippines eats rice for three meals a day, you cannot also say that people living in Kansas also eat rice for three meals a day. It is a non-representative sample.

    3. The use (misuse) of statistics is frequently combined with false but logical-sounding conclusions. A single data point is used to represent conclusions that the data does not indeed support. This makes an argument sound very credible even when it is not. Example = 100% of all people that consumed carrots in 1889 are now dead - therefore carrots kill you, so you better stop eating them.



    On top of all this, the statistic is used to make people think that going to the ground is a good idea.

    To quote Sergeant Sommers, (who worked with the Gracies, the Machados, Benny Urquidez and several other top martial artists) "I don't ever recommend you go to the ground." The very author of the study and designer of the training program thinks going to the ground is a very bad idea.



    It sounds to me like it is a good idea to stay off the ground but know what to do if you do wind up there. This is what I have been saying, and what law enforcement and military folks have told me for years. Notice I did NOT say that you shouldn't study ground fighting. On the contrary, I think it's very important. But you do not want to waste time doing arm bars and triangle chokes, you want to do what you must to get back on your feet as fast as possible.



    Also keep in mind that the moment you throw somebody to the ground, climb on them, and punch them - you are committing assault and battery in most jurisdictions. The hockey dad case in Massachusetts is an example. Thomas Junta was assaulted in front of his children. He then grounded and punched his assailant who hit his head on the concrete and died. Mr. Junta is now serving time for involuntary manslaughter.





    Additional information regarding civilian fights.



    Male versus Male - Age 18 and up

    In studying real life fights involving this group of civilians, we find that no more than 40% fights ever went to the ground. When the fights did go to the ground, it was typically due to two main reasons:

    1. Ineffective technique that led to the combatants becoming fatigued and frustrated and proceeding to a grapple, and then to falling on the ground.

    2. One of the combatants actually tripping and falling.



    Male versus Female - Age 18 and up

    The percentage is much higher with male versus female. This is due to the nature of the attack. Men attack women for the purpose of control and exploitation, such as rape. Going to the ground is typical for these assaults.



    Children versus Children

    It is not uncommon for the typical schoolyard brawl to end up in a wrestling match on the ground. The assaults are usually not intended to inflict physical harm but rather to control. Hence punches and strikes may not be considered. The outcome of these altercations are typically much less severe than real adult confrontations.

    I highlighted a few points in this article...

    Interesting, makes sense that the Po po would keep stats on this...especially since they have to subdue and restrain people...if this is accurate then only 60% of their arrests involve going to the ground and male vs male street fights go to the ground 40% of the time.
    "if its ok for shaolin wuseng to break his vow then its ok for me to sneak behind your house at 3 in the morning and bang your dog if buddha is in your heart then its ok"-Bawang

    "I get what you have said in the past, but we are not intuitive fighters. As instinctive fighters, we can chuck spears and claw and bite. We are not instinctively god at punching or kicking."-Drake

    "Princess? LMAO hammer you are such a pr^t"-Frost

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robinhood View Post
    Probably 98% unskilled.
    Did you just quote and then answer yourself???? Who are you trying to troll?
    "if its ok for shaolin wuseng to break his vow then its ok for me to sneak behind your house at 3 in the morning and bang your dog if buddha is in your heart then its ok"-Bawang

    "I get what you have said in the past, but we are not intuitive fighters. As instinctive fighters, we can chuck spears and claw and bite. We are not instinctively god at punching or kicking."-Drake

    "Princess? LMAO hammer you are such a pr^t"-Frost

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raipizo View Post
    Maybe a kinda my style is superior than this persons style so use mine kinda thing.
    Possibly, I think it had more to do with the hype and success of the early UFC ground fighters...Gracies and wrestlers. I remember even hearing some fight announcers quoting these statistics as they were accepted facts.
    "if its ok for shaolin wuseng to break his vow then its ok for me to sneak behind your house at 3 in the morning and bang your dog if buddha is in your heart then its ok"-Bawang

    "I get what you have said in the past, but we are not intuitive fighters. As instinctive fighters, we can chuck spears and claw and bite. We are not instinctively god at punching or kicking."-Drake

    "Princess? LMAO hammer you are such a pr^t"-Frost

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by donjitsu2 View Post
    Thanks for that link! Very informative!
    Richard A. Tolson
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    53 years of training, 43 years of teaching and still aiming for perfection!

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  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Hebrew Hammer View Post
    Possibly, I think it had more to do with the hype and success of the early UFC ground fighters...Gracies and wrestlers. I remember even hearing some fight announcers quoting these statistics as they were accepted facts.
    Interesting article. Even if they are statistics it doesn't mean they'll always be true.

  14. #14
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    thanks for posting that, I was going to but ya beat me to it.

    I have heard a bunch of crap when it comes to fight statistics in this regards (not to actual documented use of force stats)

    90% of fights go to the ground, was touted by the Gracies

    Strikers responded with....

    100% of fights start standing up

    Uh.....I have known and seen fights where the person is sitting down when attacked.

    Neither one tells you the whole picture, but it does tell you that you need to be prepared in all ranges.
    "God gave you a brain, and it annoys Him greatly when you choose not to use it."

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin73 View Post
    thanks for posting that, I was going to but ya beat me to it.

    I have heard a bunch of crap when it comes to fight statistics in this regards (not to actual documented use of force stats)

    90% of fights go to the ground, was touted by the Gracies

    Strikers responded with....

    100% of fights start standing up

    Uh.....I have known and seen fights where the person is sitting down when attacked.

    Neither one tells you the whole picture, but it does tell you that you need to be prepared in all ranges.
    Really I mean what if you're on a bus and sitting down or something. There are plenty of exceptions.

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