Challenging the 85% rule

[Kevin73]

Really I mean what if you're on a bus and sitting down or something. There are plenty of exceptions.

Exactly, people use statistics and even make up their own statistics to sell their point. The Gracies did it with the over 90% claim, and the stand up side did it with their fictional 100% claim.

[Jimbo]

I always knew that the "90 percent of all fights" statistic was made up or purposely inflated by the Gracie's to promote their art. That does not mean it isn't a great art ( IMO, BJJ/GJJ is the best ground-grappling style); but that the percentage was not based on fact. How can you say "this or that percent of all fights" happen this way or that, when I'm sure many/most fights go unreported? Do they have actual, first- hand knowledge of every single fight that happened in history up to today? Of course not.

It's kind of like when some people say something like, "98 percent of all martial artists are mall-ninja wannabes". Or "95 percent of all MAists took up training because of Bruce Lee." It's an argument that is impossible to back up.

[sanjuro_ronin]

100% of all fights that end up on the ground, end up on the ground.
That is a fact that no one can dispute.

[Lucas]

I dispute that fact.

[YouKnowWho]

100% of all fights that end up on the ground, end up on the ground.
That is a fact that no one can dispute.

Agree. A fight will be ended by either knock down or take down. If 2 persons are still standing, that fight is not over yet.

In battlefield, only a dead enemy is a good enemy. Any wounded enemy may come back and kill you in next battle.

[mooyingmantis]

I enjoyed the link, but my guess is that those statistics are out of date.

Cops where I live don't grapple with anyone. They simply pepper spray and taze you liberally. Rinse and repeat!

[Raipizo]

I enjoyed the link, but my guess is that those statistics are out of date.

Cops where I live don't grapple with anyone. They simply pepper spray and taze you liberally. Rinse and repeat!

And they are nice tools to have but if you can't reach them or are resistant, which is very well possible. Ground fighting is essential.

[Frost]

Only study i know of done about actuakl sreet encounters

Part1

By Bakari Akil II, Ph.D.

People who have been following MMA, submission grappling and martial arts since 1994 have been aware of the increasing emphasis placed on ground fighting. Yes, a lot of the push is because ground-fighting experts are trying to convince people to become involved in their martial art or trying to attract more students to their studios. However, there is an extreme seriousness to their claims as well. People can get injured, maimed or killed if they aren’t able to defend themselves.

As a serious MMA or submission grappling fan you’ve probably either heard or read the following claims:

Ninety to Ninety-five percent of fights go to the ground; or

Most fights go to the ground

These claims have become a part of the lexicon of grappling gurus and their participating disciples, including me. However, is it true?

As a person who has been involved in some aspect of martial arts since I was nine years old, I have been apart of the tradition of accepting claims, verbatim, from martial arts professionals. Most of the advice has been wise, while other times it has landed me in situations I don’t want to talk about. So when I heard this claim coming from so many Jiu-jitsu and submission grappling experts in the mid 1990s I accepted it at face value.

However, as an academic, this statement over the last few years has begun to bother me. I began to wonder on what basis this claim can be made. Are there any studies that have been conducted to verify these assertions? Finally, I reached a standstill in my thoughts on the subject. I needed to know what was fueling the mantra that 90 to 95 percent of fights go to the ground. Is it an urban myth or is it for real?

So over a period of three months I designed an implemented an exploratory study with the expressed interest of trying to see if there was any validity in the claim that 90 to 95 percent of fights go to the ground or that most fights go to the ground. Over 300 street fights were analyzed during this study. The results were clarifying as well as totally unexpected.

For the purposes of my study, I needed actual fights between average citizens. However, it is nearly impossible to find access to enough physical fights between two people to analyze in person, especially in a timely and safe manner. Therefore an alternative method had to be chosen in order to study this question. This problem was resolved by using the readily available data uploaded and archived on the popular video sharing site, YouTube. The video sharing website provided the researcher with an abundant amount of data to analyze the question regarding how often fights end up on the ground and by what methods do fighters end up on the ground. For the purposes of this study, a content analysis was conducted where 300 fights were dissected over a two month period in order to address the question of whether 90 or 95 percent of fights go to the ground.

For a more detailed description of the abstract, literature review, hypothesis, methodology, findings and conclusions, contact bakil@mgc.edu.

Below are the research questions and the findings from the study:

Research Question

RQ1: What percentage of fights end with both fighters having gone to the ground at some point during the physical confrontation?

RQ2: What percentage of fights end with only one fighter having gone to the ground at some point during the physical confrontation?

RQ3: By what methods do fighters end up fighting off the ground? (i.e., punch, kick, takedown, push)

Findings

Although the findings cannot be generalized to the entire population; in this study both fighters ended up on the ground in 42% of the fights analyzed. This percentage increased substantially (72%) when analyzed for at least one fighter going to the ground.

So what do these numbers indicate for research questions one (RQ1) and two (RQ2)? It means that the people who have been making these claims are not far off the mark. They just have to be more specific. In other words, there is more than a good chance that if two people fight, one of them is going to end up on the ground (72% in this study). The chance that both will end up there is much less (42% in this study), but it is still substantial enough that one should focus on ground defense.

The third research question that needed to be answered is how do those fighters end up on the ground? The answer to that query is that in our study, 57% of the fighters who ended up on the ground were taken down by a throw, a trip or being pulled to the ground. Being pushed only accounted for 7% of fighters who ended up on the ground. So learning how to grapple and more specifically; how to apply and stop takedowns is vital to fighting.

The other most common way that fighters ended up on the ground was by being punched. This accounted for 35% of the total incidents where a fighter was sent to the ground. One other important point is for martial artists or others who might rely on kicking techniques. Out of 300 analyzed fights and 600 fighters, only one person fell to the ground because of a kick. However, that kick did result in a knockout of the person on the receiving end.

[Lucas]

what do they mean by one fighter goes to the ground? is that meaning the other did not follow and it stood back up? or does it mean that was when the other figher got KO/etc. and went down for the count?

if only one fighter goes to the ground, and the other does not, then either the other guy gets back up and they continue, or the fights over.

so in terms of, ground fighting, that study shows 42% of fights end up in some sort of a ground fight.

[Frost]

what do they mean by one fighter goes to the ground? is that meaning the other did not follow and it stood back up? or does it mean that was when the other figher got KO/etc. and went down for the count?

if only one fighter goes to the ground, and the other does not, then either the other guy gets back up and they continue, or the fights over.

so in terms of, ground fighting, that study shows 42% of fights end up in some sort of a ground fight.

I suppose it means one guy at sometime went to the ground in a fight 70% of the time, whether it stopped there, he got the cr&p kicked out of him whilst on the florr, or managed to stand back up all these would still mean at one point a fighter was on the ground

So in 42% of the time both guys were on the ground and 72% of the time one person was on the ground, both those figures are high enough to suggest learning how to both fight on the ground and deal with a standing opponent whilst on your back might be wise

[Samwise85]

I think there is also an issue with the methodology of using Youtube to study fights (note I have not read the the methods section of the paper, which, being a bit of a methods nerd I would like to do). In short, there is not way tell why the person posting did so. Were they a friend of the victor? Did they simply film the altercation? Was the altercation staged? Did the victor get a hold of the footage and post it? Unless the author of the paper contacted the posters of the material and received honest answers to these or similar questions there is really no reliable way to determine whether his results are valid. Further, the author notes his own bias as a ground fighting practitioner which could describe his willingness to accept results that support his underlying thesis. Finally, there is no indication as to whether individuals in the respective street fights he observed have martial arts training and might therefore be more likely to either take an opponent to the ground or avoid it. I do not mean to undermine this interesting work, but it doesn't really seem to have a solid empirical basis for the claims of causation that it makes.

Remember: There are lies, **** lies, and then there are statistics - Benjamin Disraeli

[David Jamieson]

There's no such rule.

the 85% thing is merely a meme. It's not true. It can't be proven or shown to be true at all.

In wrestling 100% of the fights go to the ground.
In boxing, 0% of the fighting goes to the ground.

There. Is that enough to dispel the bullshit myth?
It should be ample.

[Frost]

There's no such rule.

the 85% thing is merely a meme. It's not true. It can't be proven or shown to be true at all.

In wrestling 100% of the fights go to the ground.
In boxing, 0% of the fighting goes to the ground.

There. Is that enough to dispel the bullshit myth?
It should be ample.

not really but i cant decide if you are being serious or missing he point of the thread

[sanjuro_ronin]

I've won 100% of all the fights I have ever won.

[Hebrew Hammer]

I've won 100% of all the fights I have ever won.

You couldn't fight your way out of a wet paper bag, 60% of the time.